Examining the differential impact of monetary policy in India: a policy simulation approach

Abstract

Purpose: Though an accumulating body of study has analysed monetary policy transmission in India, there are few studies examining the differential impact of monetary policy action. Against this backdrop, this study aims to analyse the differential impact of monetary policy on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and their components along with the general price level in India. Design/methodology/approach: The study develops a structural macroeconometric model, which is primarily aggregate and eclectic in nature. The generalized method of movements is used for estimation of behavioural equations, while a Gauss–Seidel algorithm is used for model simulation purposes. Findings: The paper presents the results of two policy simulations from the estimated model that highlight the differential impact of monetary policy. The first one, hike in the policy rate by 5% and second is a reduction in bank credit to the commercial sector by 10%. The results from the first policy simulation experiment reveal that interest hike has a significant negative impact on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and general price level. However, the maximum impact is borne by investment demand and imports followed by private consumption. While as among the components of aggregate supply maximum impact is born by infrastructure output followed by the manufacturing and services sector with the agriculture sector found to be insensitive in nature. The results from the second policy simulation experiment revealed that pure monetary shocks have a significant negative impact on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and general price level. However, the maximum impact is born by private consumption and imports followed by investment demand. While as among components of aggregate supply maximum impact is borne by infrastructure followed by the manufacturing and services sector with the agriculture sector found to be insensitive in nature. From both policy simulation experiments, the study highlighted the relative importance of the income absorption approach as opposed to the expenditure switching effect. Practical implications: The results obtained in this study provides a strong framework for design the monetary policy framework. The results are in a view of the differential impact of monetary policy action among the components of both aggregate demand and aggregate supply. This reflection of differential impact has immense significance for the macroeconomic stabilization as the central bank will have to weigh the varying repercussion of its actions on different sectors. For instance, the decline in output after monetary tightening might be conceived as mild from an overall perspective, but it can be appreciable for some sectors. This differential influence will have an implication for policy design to care for distributional aspects, which otherwise could be neglected/disregarded. Similarly, the output decline may be as a result of either consumption postponement or a temporary slowdown in investment. However, the one emanating due to investment decline will have lasting growth implications compared to a decline in consumer demand. In addition, the relative strength of expenditure changing or expenditure switching policies of trade balance stabilization may have varying consequences in the aftermath of monetary policy shock. Accordingly information on the relative sensitiveness/insensitiveness of different sectors/ components of aggregate demand towards monetary policy actions furnish valuable insights to monetary authorities in framing appropriate policy. Originality/value: The work carried out in the present paper is motivated by the fact that although a number of studies have examined the monetary transmission mechanism in India, a very few studies examining the differential impact of monetary policy action. However, to the best of the knowledge, there is no such studies, which have examined the differential impact of monetary policy in the structural macro-econometric framework. The paper will enrich the existing literature by providing a detailed account of the differential impact of monetary policy among the components of both aggregate demand and aggregate supply in response to an interest rate hike, as well as a decrease in the money supply.