Decadal changes in the relationship between the Indian and Australian summer monsoons

Abstract

In this study, we investigate a long-term modulation in the relationship between Indian summer monsoon rainfall with the subsequent Australian summer monsoon rainfall. The two monsoon rainfall time series are significantly correlated at 0.3 at the 99 % confidence level. However, the relationship weakens during the 1932-1966 period, with the inter-monsoon correlation for the period falling below statistical significance. We find that this modulation is consistent with a breakdown of the typical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on sea surface temperature in the northern region of Australia, during this period. In addition, a change in the relative influences of ENSO and Indian Ocean Basin-wide Warming sea surface temperature anomalies on the Australian summer monsoon rainfall is also apparent across different time periods. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.