On the possible cause of distinct El Ninõ types in the recent decades

Abstract

Distinct El Ninõ types have been observed in the recent decades with warm anomalies in the eastern Pacific (Canonical El Ninõ, EL) and central Pacific (El Ninõ Modoki, EM). Among these, a basinwide tropical Pacific (TP) warming is seen during 2009 and recently during 2014. We carried out data analysis and numerical simulation experiments to understand the possible cause for different El Ninõ flavours. The results reveal that the co-evolution of ocean-atmospheric conditions are critically important. Stronger boreal spring (Mar-May) through summer (June-September) westerly wind anomalies (WWA), with relatively stronger ocean pre-conditioning can lead to EL, weaker ocean pre-conditioning and weaker WWA can generate EM, while stronger ocean preconditioning and weaker WWA can lead to basinwide warming pattern. The strength of the WWA is crucial in determining the strength of the ocean dynamic response and the thermocline displacements in the Pacific. The study has important implications for understanding the nature of El Ninõ in advance.